MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for July 31, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Our simulation re-priced the slate for Friday, July 31, 2026. The strongest disagreements with the market are below.
1. New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs — NYY +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is NYY +1.5, an edge of about 1.9 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.9 runs while the book has hung 5.5. That points to the Over 5.5, with about 3.4 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYY 5 – CHC 4 · full preview →
2. Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds — CIN +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is CIN +1.5, an edge of about 1.9 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 9.1 combined runs versus a market number of 8. That points to the Over 8, with about 1.1 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected PIT 4 – CIN 5 · full preview →
3. Miami Marlins at New York Mets — NYM +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is NYM +1.5, an edge of about 2.5 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.0 runs while the book has hung 8.5. That points to the Under 8.5, with about 0.5 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected MIA 4 – NYM 5 · full preview →
4. Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves — ATL +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is ATL +1.5, an edge of about 2.7 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.6 runs while the book has hung 9. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected WSH 4 – ATL 5 · full preview →
5. Detroit Tigers at Athletics — ATH +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is ATH +1.5, an edge of about 1.1 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.4 runs while the book has hung 11. That points to the Under 11, with about 2.6 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected DET 4 – ATH 4 · full preview →