MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for August 5, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
The algorithm sorted every game for Wednesday, August 5, 2026 by edge. These rose to the top.
1. Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros — TOR +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is TOR +1.5, an edge of about 0.8 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.4 runs against the posted 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.9 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TOR 4 – HOU 5 · full preview →
2. Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs — LAD +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -1.5 on CHC, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is LAD +1.5, an edge of about 2.1 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.8 combined runs versus a market number of 10.5. That points to the Under 10.5, with about 1.7 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected LAD 5 – CHC 4 · full preview →
3. New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians — CLE +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 1.5 on CLE, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is CLE +1.5, an edge of about 1.8 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.2 runs against the posted 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 0.7 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYM 4 – CLE 4 · full preview →
4. Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals — KC +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is KC +1.5, an edge of about 1.6 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.3 combined runs versus a market number of 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected MIN 4 – KC 4 · full preview →
5. San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks — ARI +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is ARI +1.5, an edge of about 1.6 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.4 runs against the posted 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected SD 4 – ARI 4 · full preview →