MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for August 9, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
The model just re-graded the board for Sunday, August 9, 2026. Here are the plays it likes most today.
1. Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals — CIN +5.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -5.5 on WSH, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is CIN +5.5, an edge of about 5.5 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 9.3 runs against the posted 8.5. That points to the Over 8.5, with about 0.8 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CIN 5 – WSH 5 · full preview →
2. Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies — TOR +2.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -2.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is TOR +2.5, an edge of about 1.7 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.6 runs while the book has hung 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected TOR 4 – PHI 5 · full preview →
3. New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates — PIT +8.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 8.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is PIT +8.5, an edge of about 8.1 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.3 combined runs versus a market number of 15.5. That points to the Under 15.5, with about 7.2 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYM 4 – PIT 4 · full preview →
4. Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees — ATL +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is ATL +1.5, an edge of about 1.3 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.9 runs while the book has hung 4.5. That points to the Over 4.5, with about 4.4 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected ATL 4 – NYY 5 · full preview →
5. Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins — LAA +2.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -2.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is LAA +2.5, an edge of about 2.4 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.1 combined runs versus a market number of 9.5. That points to the Under 9.5, with about 1.4 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected LAA 4 – MIA 4 · full preview →