MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for August 16, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
The model just re-graded the board for Sunday, August 16, 2026. Here are the plays it likes most today.
1. Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays — TB +7.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 7.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is TB +7.5, an edge of about 7.5 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.4 combined runs versus a market number of 12.5. That points to the Under 12.5, with about 4.1 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected BAL 4 – TB 4 · full preview →
2. Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves — ARI +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -1.5 on ATL, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is ARI +1.5, an edge of about 0.8 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.9 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.4 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected ARI 4 – ATL 5 · full preview →
3. Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates — BOS +6.5 Strong
The market opened at -6.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BOS +6.5, an edge of about 6.8 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.8 combined runs versus a market number of 11.5. That points to the Under 11.5, with about 2.7 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected BOS 5 – PIT 4 · full preview →
4. New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays — NYY +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -1.5 on TOR, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is NYY +1.5, an edge of about 2.0 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.8 combined runs versus a market number of 4.5. That points to the Over 4.5, with about 4.3 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYY 5 – TOR 4 · full preview →
5. Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers — CWS +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -1.5 on DET, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is CWS +1.5, an edge of about 0.3 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.2 combined runs versus a market number of 10.5. That points to the Under 10.5, with about 2.3 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CWS 4 – DET 5 · full preview →