MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 11, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Our simulation re-priced the slate for Friday, September 11, 2026. The strongest disagreements with the market are below.
1. Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers — COL +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is COL +1.5, an edge of about 0.5 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 10.6 runs while the book has hung 8.5. That points to the Over 8.5, with about 2.1 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected COL 5 – DET 6 · full preview →
2. Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays — BAL +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BAL +1.5, an edge of about 1.7 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.7 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 1.2 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected BAL 4 – TOR 4 · full preview →
3. Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays — HOU +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is HOU +1.5, an edge of about 1.6 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.1 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 0.6 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected HOU 4 – TB 4 · full preview →
4. Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers — CIN +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CIN +1.5, an edge of about 0.9 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 9.2 runs against the posted 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 1.7 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CIN 4 – MIL 5 · full preview →
5. Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals — STL +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is STL +1.5, an edge of about 2.6 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.3 runs against the posted 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected CWS 4 – STL 5 · full preview →