MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 12, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Best bets for Saturday, September 12, 2026, straight from the model — no gut calls, just the biggest edges.
1. Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigers — DET +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is DET +1.5, an edge of about 2.5 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 10.6 runs while the book has hung 12.5. That points to the Under 12.5, with about 1.9 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected COL 5 – DET 6 · full preview →
2. New York Mets at New York Yankees — NYY +3.5 Strong
The market opened at 3.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is NYY +3.5, an edge of about 4.1 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.8 runs against the posted 9.5. That points to the Under 9.5, with about 0.7 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYM 4 – NYY 5 · full preview →
3. Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs — PIT +2.5 Strong
The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is PIT +2.5, an edge of about 1.9 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.4 runs against the posted 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected PIT 4 – CHC 5 · full preview →
4. Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays — BAL +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BAL +1.5, an edge of about 1.7 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.7 combined runs versus a market number of 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected BAL 4 – TOR 4 · full preview →
5. Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays — HOU +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is HOU +1.5, an edge of about 1.6 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.1 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 0.6 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected HOU 4 – TB 4 · full preview →