MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 20, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
The model just re-graded the board for Sunday, September 20, 2026. Here are the plays it likes most today.
1. Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets — NYM +3.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 3.5 on NYM, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is NYM +3.5, an edge of about 3.4 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.6 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.1 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected PHI 4 – NYM 4 · full preview →
2. Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates — KC +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is KC +1.5, an edge of about 1.7 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.2 runs while the book has hung 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.7 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected KC 4 – PIT 4 · full preview →
3. Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays — BOS +5.5 Strong
The market opened at -5.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BOS +5.5, an edge of about 5.3 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.7 runs against the posted 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected BOS 4 – TB 4 · full preview →
4. Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds — CIN +4.5 Strong
The market opened at 4.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CIN +4.5, an edge of about 4.5 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 9.4 runs while the book has hung 11.5. That points to the Under 11.5, with about 2.1 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CHC 5 – CIN 5 · full preview →
5. Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros — ATL +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is ATL +1.5, an edge of about 1.5 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.5 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.0 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected ATL 4 – HOU 4 · full preview →