MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 25, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Our simulation re-priced the slate for Friday, September 25, 2026. The strongest disagreements with the market are below.
1. Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees — NYY +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 1.5 on NYY, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is NYY +1.5, an edge of about 2.0 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 9.0 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.5 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected BAL 4 – NYY 5 · full preview →
2. Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox — BOS +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BOS +1.5, an edge of about 1.8 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 9.1 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.6 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CHC 4 – BOS 5 · full preview →
3. Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers — DET +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is DET +1.5, an edge of about 2.1 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.0 runs while the book has hung 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 0.5 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected PIT 4 – DET 4 · full preview →
4. Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies — TB +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is TB +1.5, an edge of about 0.9 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.3 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.8 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TB 4 – PHI 4 · full preview →
5. Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees — NYY +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 1.5 on NYY, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is NYY +1.5, an edge of about 2.0 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 9.0 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.5 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected BAL 4 – NYY 5 · full preview →