MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 26, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Best bets for Saturday, September 26, 2026, straight from the model — no gut calls, just the biggest edges.
1. New York Mets at Washington Nationals — WSH +4.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 4.5 on WSH, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is WSH +4.5, an edge of about 4.1 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.5 runs against the posted 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 2.0 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYM 4 – WSH 4 · full preview →
2. Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers — DET +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is DET +1.5, an edge of about 2.1 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.0 runs while the book has hung 5.5. That points to the Over 5.5, with about 2.5 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected PIT 4 – DET 4 · full preview →
3. Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins — MIN +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 1.5 on MIN, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is MIN +1.5, an edge of about 1.7 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.8 runs against the posted 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 1.3 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TEX 4 – MIN 5 · full preview →
4. Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox — COL +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is COL +1.5, an edge of about 1.5 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 10.9 combined runs versus a market number of 8.5. That points to the Over 8.5, with about 2.4 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected COL 5 – CWS 5 · full preview →
5. Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies — PHI +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is PHI +1.5, an edge of about 2.1 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.3 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.8 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TB 4 – PHI 4 · full preview →