MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for September 27, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
The model just re-graded the board for Sunday, September 27, 2026. Here are the plays it likes most today.
1. New York Mets at Washington Nationals — WSH +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 1.5 on WSH, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is WSH +1.5, an edge of about 1.1 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.5 runs against the posted 12.5. That points to the Under 12.5, with about 4.0 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYM 4 – WSH 4 · full preview →
2. Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies — TB +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is TB +1.5, an edge of about 0.9 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.3 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.8 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TB 4 – PHI 4 · full preview →
3. Houston Astros at Athletics — ATH +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is ATH +1.5, an edge of about 0.7 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.6 runs while the book has hung 10.5. That points to the Under 10.5, with about 1.9 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected HOU 5 – ATH 4 · full preview →
4. Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox — BOS +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BOS +1.5, an edge of about 1.8 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 9.1 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 1.6 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CHC 4 – BOS 5 · full preview →
5. Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox — COL +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is COL +1.5, an edge of about 1.5 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 10.9 combined runs versus a market number of 8.5. That points to the Over 8.5, with about 2.4 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected COL 5 – CWS 5 · full preview →