MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for August 7, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Our simulation re-priced the slate for Friday, August 7, 2026. The strongest disagreements with the market are below.
1. New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates — NYM +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is NYM +1.5, an edge of about 1.9 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.3 combined runs versus a market number of 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYM 4 – PIT 4 · full preview →
2. Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals — KC +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is KC +1.5, an edge of about 1.7 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.5 combined runs versus a market number of 9.5. That points to the Under 9.5, with about 1.0 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CHC 4 – KC 4 · full preview →
3. Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers — BAL +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is BAL +1.5, an edge of about 1.5 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 9.1 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 1.6 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected BAL 5 – TEX 5 · full preview →
4. Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals — COL +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is COL +1.5, an edge of about 0.6 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 10.7 combined runs versus a market number of 8.5. That points to the Over 8.5, with about 2.2 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected COL 5 – STL 6 · full preview →
5. Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners — SEA +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 1.5 on SEA, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is SEA +1.5, an edge of about 1.8 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 7.4 combined runs versus a market number of 7. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected TB 4 – SEA 4 · full preview →