Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals and it likes St. Louis Cardinals. Our projection has STL favored by roughly 0.9 runs, a win probability near 57%, and a projected final of COL 5 – STL 6.

Against the run line

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is COL +1.5, an edge of about 0.6 runs in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 10.7 combined runs versus a market number of 8.5. That points to the Over 8.5, with about 2.2 runs of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of COL 5 – STL 6, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.