MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for August 11, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Here's where the model sees the most value on the MLB board for Tuesday, August 11, 2026.
1. Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers — CLE +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CLE +1.5, an edge of about 1.6 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 7.9 runs while the book has hung 8. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected CLE 4 – DET 4 · full preview →
2. Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays — BOS +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BOS +1.5, an edge of about 1.5 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 9.0 combined runs versus a market number of 7. That points to the Over 7, with about 2.0 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected BOS 5 – TOR 5 · full preview →
3. Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox — CIN +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -1.5 on CWS, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is CIN +1.5, an edge of about 2.1 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 9.3 runs while the book has hung 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 1.8 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected CIN 5 – CWS 4 · full preview →
4. Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks — COL +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -1.5 on ARI, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is COL +1.5, an edge of about 0.4 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 11.2 runs while the book has hung 9.5. That points to the Over 9.5, with about 1.7 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected COL 5 – ARI 6 · full preview →
5. Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics — ATH +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is ATH +1.5, an edge of about 1.0 runs in our favor. For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 8.4 runs against the posted 10. That points to the Under 10, with about 1.6 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TB 4 – ATH 4 · full preview →