Wed, Aug 12 · 7:40 PM ET

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: prediction & pick

When Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks meet, our simulation gives the edge to Arizona Diamondbacks. Our projection has ARI favored by roughly 1.1 runs, a win probability near 58%, and a projected final of COL 5 – ARI 6.

Against the run line

Where the book sits at -1.5 on ARI, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is COL +1.5, an edge of about 0.4 runs in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 11.2 runs while the book has hung 9. That points to the Over 9, with about 2.2 runs of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of COL 5 – ARI 6, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.