MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for August 14, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
Our simulation re-priced the slate for Friday, August 14, 2026. The strongest disagreements with the market are below.
1. St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs — STL +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -1.5 on CHC, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is STL +1.5, an edge of about 1.2 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.4 runs while the book has hung 5.5. That points to the Over 5.5, with about 2.9 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected STL 4 – CHC 4 · full preview →
2. Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds — CIN +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 1.5 on CIN, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is CIN +1.5, an edge of about 2.1 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.8 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 1.3 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected MIA 4 – CIN 5 · full preview →
3. Washington Nationals at New York Mets — NYM +1.5 Strong
Where the book sits at 1.5 on NYM, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is NYM +1.5, an edge of about 2.3 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.5 combined runs versus a market number of 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
Model confidence 85% · projected WSH 4 – NYM 5 · full preview →
4. Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros — HOU +1.5 Strong
The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is HOU +1.5, an edge of about 1.9 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 7.6 runs while the book has hung 8.5. That points to the Under 8.5, with about 0.9 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected SEA 4 – HOU 4 · full preview →
5. Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants — COL +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is COL +1.5, an edge of about 0.6 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 10.3 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 2.8 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected COL 5 – SF 6 · full preview →