St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs and it likes Chicago Cubs. Our projection has CHC favored by roughly 0.3 runs, a win probability near 52%, and a projected final of STL 4 – CHC 4.

Against the run line

Where the book sits at -1.5 on CHC, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is STL +1.5, an edge of about 1.2 runs in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.4 runs while the book has hung 8.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of STL 4 – CHC 4, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 76% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.