MLBComputerPicksMLB Computer Picks: Best Bets for August 23, 2026
Published · Auto-generated from the model
The model just re-graded the board for Sunday, August 23, 2026. Here are the plays it likes most today.
1. Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles — BAL +1.5 Strong
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is BAL +1.5, an edge of about 1.9 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.4 runs while the book has hung 3.5. That points to the Over 3.5, with about 4.9 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected TB 4 – BAL 4 · full preview →
2. St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies — PHI +3.5 Strong
The market opened at 3.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is PHI +3.5, an edge of about 4.3 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.4 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.9 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected STL 4 – PHI 5 · full preview →
3. Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals — DET +4.5 Strong
Where the book sits at -4.5 on KC, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live run line play. The recommendation is DET +4.5, an edge of about 4.3 runs in our favor. On the total, the model projects around 8.1 combined runs versus a market number of 11.5. That points to the Under 11.5, with about 3.4 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected DET 4 – KC 4 · full preview →
4. Athletics at Houston Astros — ATH +4.5 Strong
The market opened at -4.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is ATH +4.5, an edge of about 3.3 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.6 runs while the book has hung 10.5. That points to the Under 10.5, with about 1.9 runs of under edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected ATH 4 – HOU 5 · full preview →
5. New York Mets at Chicago White Sox — NYM +1.5 Strong
The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is NYM +1.5, an edge of about 2.5 runs in our favor. Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.5 runs while the book has hung 5.5. That points to the Over 5.5, with about 3.0 runs of over edge.
Model confidence 85% · projected NYM 5 – CWS 4 · full preview →