St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies: prediction & pick

When St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies meet, our simulation gives the edge to Philadelphia Phillies. Our projection has PHI favored by roughly 0.8 runs, a win probability near 56%, and a projected final of STL 4 – PHI 5.

Against the run line

The market opened at 3.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is PHI +3.5, an edge of about 4.3 runs in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 8.4 combined runs versus a market number of 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.9 runs of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of STL 4 – PHI 5, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.