Sun, Sep 6 · 5:38 PM ET

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles: prediction & pick

Boston Red Sox visit Baltimore Orioles with the model leaning toward Baltimore Orioles. Our projection has BAL favored by roughly 0.4 runs, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of BOS 4 – BAL 5.

Against the run line

The market opened at 2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BAL +2.5, an edge of about 2.9 runs in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 9.2 combined runs versus a market number of 7.5. That points to the Over 7.5, with about 1.7 runs of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BOS 4 – BAL 5, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.