Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals and it likes St. Louis Cardinals. Our projection has STL favored by roughly 0.1 runs, a win probability near 51%, and a projected final of CHC 4 – STL 4.

Against the run line

The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CHC +1.5, an edge of about 1.4 runs in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 8.4 runs while the book has hung 6.5. That points to the Over 6.5, with about 1.9 runs of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of CHC 4 – STL 4, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 85% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.