San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals: prediction & pick

When San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals meet, our simulation gives the edge to St. Louis Cardinals. Our projection has STL favored by roughly 0.2 runs, a win probability near 51%, and a projected final of SF 4 – STL 4.

Against the run line

The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is SF +1.5, an edge of about 1.3 runs in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 7.7 combined runs versus a market number of 8. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of SF 4 – STL 4, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 79% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.