St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds: prediction & pick

Cincinnati Reds host St. Louis Cardinals in a matchup where the model sides with Cincinnati Reds. Our projection has CIN favored by roughly 0.1 runs, a win probability near 51%, and a projected final of STL 5 – CIN 5.

Against the run line

The market opened at 0 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CIN 0, an edge of about 0.1 runs in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 9.1 combined runs versus a market number of 9.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of STL 5 – CIN 5, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.